The full ledger.
Timestamped. CLV-graded.

The calculation

For every pick, CLV is the difference in implied probability between the price we logged at alert time and the closing price, expressed in percentage points (pp). A positive figure means we secured a longer price than the market's final, sharpest assessment of the game — the single most reliable long-run predictor of a genuine edge. Win/loss outcomes are noise over short windows; CLV is signal. We compute it on every graded pick, with no cherry-picking.

The benchmark: the best price at close — which means we beat Pinnacle

We do not grade against a soft recreational book, and we do not grade against a single convenient reference. We grade against the best closing price available across every book we track — the longest odds anyone, anywhere, could have secured at kick-off. Pinnacle — the sharpest and most respected closing line in the industry, and the book nearly every serious operation quotes its CLV against — is one of those books.

That choice carries a precise, provable consequence. The best available closing price is, by definition, always at least as sharp as Pinnacle's. So every time we post a positive CLV figure, we have not merely beaten the soft books — we have beaten Pinnacle's own closing line. Clearing the best-of-all benchmark means Pinnacle was cleared on the way there. Our reported CLV is therefore a floor: measured against Pinnacle alone, the number could only be equal or higher.

Most services quote "CLV vs Pinnacle close" because it is the easier bar to clear. We hold ourselves to the harder one — beating the best price on the entire board — and we disclose it in the open, because a CLV number is worth exactly what its benchmark demands of it, and no more.

What “reconstructed” means — and why it still counts

Our default is live capture. An automated job fetches the market's closing price across our six marketmaker books within the hour before kick-off and records it in the moment. That is how 90% of the CLV on this page was measured — as it happened, no hindsight involved.

The remaining 10% is reconstructed. When a capture-system outage let some games close without a live snapshot, we faced a choice most services resolve silently: drop the bets, or recover them honestly. We recovered them — querying The Odds API's historical odds archive for the exact snapshot at each game's kick-off, then computing CLV with the identical formula used for live captures. This is genuine closing-line data, from the same marketmaker books, priced at the same moment the game began. The only difference is that it was retrieved after the fact rather than in real time.

We publish the split instead of blending it because a reconstructed close is a faithful proxy, not a byte-for-byte identical measurement. It treats the kick-off-time snapshot as the close — accurate to the minute, but not the same as a line captured live and continuously through the final market moves. Every reconstructed entry is flagged as such in our database, so the line between measured and recovered is explicit and independently auditable. If you want to weight them differently — or judge our live-captured record on its own — you have the numbers to do exactly that.

Timestamp before kick-off

Every pick is written to the audit ledger with a server-side timestamp before the game's scheduled kick-off. There is no publishing wins after the fact. If a pick isn't in the ledger before kick-off, it doesn't count.

Devigging from marketmaker books

The fair price for every bet is computed by removing the book's hold from six marketmaker books (Pinnacle, Prophet, BookmakerEU, Sporttrade, LowVig, BetOnline). Edge is measured against this fair price, not against the recreational book's quoted price.

CLV graded at close

After each game, every pick is graded against the best closing price available across all books we track — Pinnacle included. Because that benchmark is always at least as sharp as Pinnacle's own close, a positive CLV figure means we beat Pinnacle's closing line, not just the soft books. See "How we measure CLV" above for the full method. Positive CLV is the only reliable long-run predictor of profitability; win/loss outcomes are noise over short windows.

What this isn't

This isn't a guaranteed-pick service. It isn't a lock-of-the-day channel. It isn't a backtest fitted to past results. It's the live, running output of a rules-based scanner operating under a single decision rule: positive expected value off the sharp fair price, confirmed by a Poisson goal model.